FAST EnduroDuel 2018 - Dec 29

[Loren]

A little bit of info on how the classes are coming together for this one. There are basically two ways we could do it. We could do it straight up by class, which I looked at, and we could make it work with a few complete or almost complete classes (like M2), and some combined classes. But, the problem there is that there's a GREAT disparity between levels of preparation and levels of driver skill in each class. And, sure, every class has to have winners and losers... but, especially when it comes to a Duel... close competition is FUN!

The other way we can do classing is to disregard classes altogether, and simply group cars based on their seed order. I created a seed list based on average finish position of each driver over the past 4 FAST Open events. This gave pretty good data on 90% of the drivers. The handful of drivers that didn't have enough attendance in that period, or at all, I looked at prior events, or just known skill level. I also had to make adjustments for people running different cars or different setup from their norm. (like Jack running race tires on his S2000... Trevor showing up in an ES car that we have no data on, but we know he's "as fast or faster than Philip"... and if Philip changes to a different car, he'll be adjusted accordingly)

With a good seed list representing where each driver should finish overall +/- 5 positions or so... breaking that up into 8 even groups is easy. And THAT gives us classes that are much better matched. Nobody gets any "easy" matches, and nobody flat out gets their ass handed to them.

Handicapping, we're going to leave to the competitors. If you feel you should get or give a handicap, negotiate that with your competitor and come to a fair agreement. Each starting line is 100 feet back from the finish line, so it's very easy to give handicaps in 25-foot, or even 12-foot increments. Seed numbers (representing average overall finish position) will be published, and you guys can use that to help determine if a handicap is warranted.

If your finish speed is 45 mph, then 66 feet at the finish represents 1 second. Do with that what you will.

Someone was asking me about race tires a while ago. This only affects the top group, of course. But, consider this: we currently have two drivers on race tires. There is one driver seeded ABOVE them on street tires. And then just below them is Ken Marion. It's gonna be a tough class any way you cut it, but race tires won't be the deciding factor. It's a Duel: driving skill is the deciding factor. It's an Enduro: consistency is the deciding factor. Any lapse in either of those two areas will shift the "balance of power".

[JasonS]

Man am I sad I'm missing this again

[Loren]

Dropping like flies, they are.

Including Casey, that makes two slots that will be available if anyone knows someone who was itching to get in.

Had one more drop out this morning, so there's one opening. Leaving registration open until Wednesday evening.

[Blue_Heron]

Loren,
I don't suppose you would consider posting the pairings for the preliminary rounds? Would be nice to know who we're up against so we can initiate the psychological warfare.
Dave

[Loren]

I don't determine pairings. I just do the seed list.

Bottom seed in each group picks his opponent, and we work up the list in each class to determine pairings. That's part of the Duel, you get to challenge your opponent.

But, over the past 3 days, I'm averaging one cancel or class change every 12 hours. So, I'm not posting anything at all because until everyone has arrived tomorrow morning, I don't know for sure who's going to be present, what they're going to be driving, and what the classes will be.

In other words: No. Bring your trash-talking A-game tomorrow. Or bring your silver tongue to talk all of your opponents into giving you a handicap. Both are valid strategies.

[Native]

You never know just who you'll race.
Trash em all!

[Loren]

Okay, it's 7pm. I'm officially done moving people around. Hopefully, everyone will show up.

Group 1 is pretty much all the folks who should be in the top 10 at any given event... especially this one. If they're on their game and stay away from the cones, any one of these guys could win. Maybe the top 3 seeds have a slight edge, but they've got to be consistent for 3 laps and not hit cones to make it stick!

Group 2 is full of drivers that are just a tick behind the top 10. And not by much. No clear advantages in this class.

Group 3 will be fun to watch. It's basically the top of S4 and the almost top of M3 and a couple other drivers that are in the same mix of times. All very close. Wildcards are Philip and Trevor are driving Philip's Miata... but, it's been freshly aligned with new suspension bushings, and rather than Philip's crap all-season tires, they're on Trevor's Conti's. Perhaps not a "top tier tire", but they're not bad. Don't be surprised if one of those guys walks away with the class... if they stay clean. They shouldn't win it. But, they could. It's still anybody's game to win.

Group 4 will be equally fun. It's a group of drivers that solidly occupy the same space barely in the upper third of the overall times at every event... and never in exactly the same order. You can honestly think of at least the top 5 seeds in this class as being "equal". In fact, I chose the order of the top 3 at random.

Group 5 ended up being the class of less-experienced people. A wild mix of cars from different classes (as most of the groups are for this event), but most of the drivers have less than 20 events of experience, and tend to occupy the lower end of the overall results. Many of them are shaping up to be really good drivers, they just haven't got the tires or car prep nailed down yet. I'm glad there were enough of them to make a class of their own. They'll get to solidly compete against each other, rather than getting punted out by the fast guys in one of the other classes. This one will be fun to watch, as well!

Overall, it should be a day filled with amazing competition and fun. The only co-driven cars (that I'm aware of) are Mike/Tonda, Loren/Dan, and Philip/Trevor. The first two pairs ended up separated into difference classes, and I made sure those classes didn't run together. So, it's unlikely that any of those drivers should even be on the grid at the same time, much less competing against each other (unless it's in the final overall winner run-off). Philip and Trevor WANTED to compete against each other, and since they're driver's of similar caliber driving the same car, they SHOULD be in the same class. So, they are. And if they end up facing each other, we'll break out the stopwatches.

[Blue_Heron]

But, over the past 3 days, I'm averaging one cancel or class change every 12 hours. So, I'm not posting anything at all because until everyone has arrived tomorrow morning, I don't know for sure who's going to be present, what they're going to be driving, and what the classes will be.

Speaking of which, and we hate to do this to you, but Tyler's M3 car is not reliable at this point, so he'll be driving my M2 car.Any chance you can change his number to 116 to make the change over more efficient? I checked and nobody's registered with that number.
Dave

[Loren]

Everything is manual tomorrow. And everything has been printed.

Remind me of whatever it is you're trying to tell me in the morning, I won't remember. We'll work it out.

[twistedwankel]

Put your game face on.

[Loren]

Post-Event Chatter